{"id":140756,"date":"2025-01-27T09:42:14","date_gmt":"2025-01-27T08:42:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.justiceinfo.net\/?p=140756"},"modified":"2025-09-19T10:48:00","modified_gmt":"2025-09-19T08:48:00","slug":"icc-caught-clan-rivalry-philippines","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.justiceinfo.net\/en\/140756-icc-caught-clan-rivalry-philippines.html","title":{"rendered":"The ICC caught in clan rivalry in Philippines"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong><strong><strong>The International Criminal Court investigation in the Philippines is used as a political football kicked between the two dynasties that are ruling the country, the Marcos and Duterte families. And it\u2019s unlikely to play in favour of the ICC. If you\u2019ve missed the story, here is scholar Tom Smith telling you all about it.<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<p>Unless you follow Filipino politics or all the current 17 ongoing investigations by the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.justiceinfo.net\/tribunals\/icc\">International Criminal Court (ICC)<\/a> you can be forgiven for missing this story. And it\u2019s a good one. It tells us much about the interaction of politics with international law and the reliance of an ICC prosecution on the very people it is supposedly investigating. All casting a dark shadow on the ability of the court to do its job independently without politicisation and showing us just how political ICC investigations are.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the Philippines, 2025 begins with incumbent President Ferdinand \u2018Bongbong\u2019 Marcos Jr (son of former dictator Ferdinand Marcos Sr, who ruled from1972-81) fighting an open battle of insults with his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte and his daughter Sara \u2013 who happens to be Bongbong\u2019s very own vice president \u2013 for now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/feud-between-marcos-and-duterte-families-distracts-from-suffering-of-typhoon-hit-philippines-244552\">Caught between these two warring clans<\/a> is a stalled <a href=\"https:\/\/www.icc-cpi.int\/philippines\">ICC investigation into Duterte\u2019s drug war<\/a> which is estimated to have led to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/world-asia-50236481\">the death of over 20,000 people<\/a>. &nbsp;The ICC investigation now is used as a political football kicked between each clan as part of a quid pro quo battle for power and favour in return for protection from the ICC.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-duterte-and-marcos-jr-strike-a-deal\">Duterte and Marcos Jr strike a deal<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Duterte\u2019s reign as president from 2016-2022 followed 22 years as mayor of Davao, a city in the Southern Philippines. And it was during his time as mayor of Davao that Duterte admittedly ran death squads \u2013 known as the DDS \u2013 the Davao Death Squad. They practiced summary executions of an estimated 1,040 people between 1998 and 2008. Provincial mayors in the Philippines are not the usual focus of 109-page reports by Human Rights Watch, so this should tell you a lot and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hrw.org\/sites\/default\/files\/reports\/philippines0409webwcover_0.pdf\"><em>\u201cYou can die anytime\u201d - Death Squad Killings in Mindanao<\/em><\/a> remains a high water mark of human rights investigative work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So it\u2019s not like Duterte didn\u2019t have previous form when he was elected president with almost twice as many votes as the next candidate, nor did he run away from his reputation. In fact he campaigned on the promise of a drug war he would scale up from the mayor\u2019s office in Davao to the president\u2019s office in Manila. The scale of the suffering multiplied by the power of the presidency and the national scale. Duterte even brought trusted DDS lieutenants&nbsp; from Davao to Manila. Chief among them Ronald \u2018Bato\u2019 Dela Rosa who Duterte made Philippines National Police (PNP) chief in July 2016. Bato would oversee the drug war (known as Operation Tokhang) taking a <a href=\"https:\/\/newsinfo.inquirer.net\/1996872\/dela-rosa-on-role-in-drug-war-given-the-chance-id-do-it-again\">prominent public role<\/a>. And this was rewarded by electorate in 2019 when Bato won 19 million votes to be elected senator.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When Duterte\u2019s term as president ended, the succession of Bongbong Marcos was far from certain, with daughter Sara Duterte, and son Paolo considering on following their father in the presidential palace. Bato also filled his candidacy for president before withdrawing it a month later when Sara filled her candidacy for vice president to run along side Bongbong. It is widely thought that <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/philippines-bongbong-marcos-son-of-reviled-dictator-ferdinand-runs-in-what-could-be-a-race-of-two-dynasties-in-2022-election-169973\">a deal was brokered between the two dynasties<\/a> that the Marcos family would take a turn in the 6-year presidential term with an understanding that the Duterte\u2019s would be kept close, have influence and be next in-line in 2028.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-duterte-s-daughter-s-death-threat\">Duterte\u2019s daughter\u2019s death threat<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The ICC investigation was officially opened in 2021, more than two years after the withdrawal from the Court ordered by Duterte became effective. Until only recently Marcos has remained steadfast that the government <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gmanetwork.com\/news\/topstories\/nation\/927038\/marcos-icc-duterte-drug-war\/story\/\">will not cooperate with the ICC<\/a>. Nobody expected him to turn on his predecessor and his VP\u2019s father. However, across the 3 years of the Marcos presidency the relationship has gone from fractious to outright hostile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sara has not been able to garner the influence she wanted. VP in the Philippines is a largely ceremonial role that comes with little clout. <a href=\"https:\/\/newsinfo.inquirer.net\/1545295\/marcos-sara-wants-to-be-defense-secretary\">She wanted to be defence minister<\/a>, and Marcos was wise to deny her this important role while the country fights two insurgencies (communist and Islamist) and faces increasing pressure from China in the South China Sea over territorial disputes. Instead, Sara had to busy herself with Education Secretary. Even here she tried to militarise the role by bringing in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pna.gov.ph\/articles\/1177621\">compulsory military service for university students.<\/a> Then came an ongoing inquiry into embezzling 500 million pesos [8,5 million US dollars] of \u2018confidential funds\u2019 and some dramatic confrontations at congressional hearings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This came to head in November when Sara t<a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/feud-between-marcos-and-duterte-families-distracts-from-suffering-of-typhoon-hit-philippines-244552\">hreatened President Marcos with assassination<\/a>, saying that she has instructed an assassin to kill the president, his wife and the speaker of the House of Representatives if she were killed. Tensions have eased since then but this was no idle threat. The Duterte\u2019s are no stranger to the work of assassins and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/world-asia-38337746\">violence themselves<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-what-witness-protection\">What witness protection?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Marcos\u2019 stance on not cooperating with the ICC investigation threatened to soften during this period with Marcos saying <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/asia-pacific\/philippines-marcos-says-will-not-block-icc-if-ex-president-duterte-wants-be-2024-11-14\/\">he would no longer block it if Duterte wanted to be investigated<\/a> which he had claimed in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2024\/oct\/28\/rodrigo-duterte-testifies-philippines-war-on-drugs-inquiry\">typical bellicose fashion in a senate hearing<\/a> last October.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Beyond this ongoing and complex political backdrop, what hope is there for an investigation to materialise and lead to actual prosecution? Although Filipino lawyer Jude Sabio filed a case in April 2017 with the ICC, the Court\u2019s investigation into the Drug War didn\u2019t begin until 2021 and three years later has yet to publicly move beyond rather na\u00efve appeals for witnesses. The ICC faces several significant, if not insurmountable hurdles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Firstly, many of the murders were not even recorded as crimes at the time, let alone investigated, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/world-asia-67825685\">forensic evidence wasn\u2019t obtained<\/a>, recorded and stored. Indeed such was the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2017\/mar\/02\/philippines-police-plant-evidence-to-justify-killings-in-drug-war-says-report\">culture of impunity<\/a> that the blood of the victims and their bodies were washed away, evidence planted, leaving only victims\u2019 families with suffering and no hope of recourse. There has been no domestic legal prosecution for the extra judicial killings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Second, witnesses are not safe. Getting insiders in the National Police to come forward \u2013 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.icc-cpi.int\/philippines\/witness-appeal\">as the ICC Prosecutor hopes<\/a> \u2013 will be very hard, verging on reckless. They will need protection. Is the ICC offering this? The one person who has come forward \u2013 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.philstar.com\/headlines\/2025\/01\/07\/2412368\/davao-death-squad-hitman-leaves-philippines-using-fake-identity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">a former assassin from the DDS \u2013 has&nbsp;just&nbsp;had to flee the Philippines using fake ID after being in hiding<\/a> and his testimony going nowhere <a href=\"https:\/\/news.sky.com\/story\/philippines-war-on-drugs-hitman-who-has-murdered-14-people-says-he-wants-to-stop-killing-and-fears-for-his-life-13055296\">beyond spectacle<\/a>. There is no momentum domestically for a prosecution and as a result witnesses like him are in danger and have no support. How is the ICC going to change that? It is unclear that the ICC can protect people.&nbsp;It risks exposing vulnerable people to the endemic corruption that an ICC investigation won\u2019t root out even if it succeeds with a showcase prosecution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-not-enough-public-support\">Not enough public support<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Third, the people doing the killing are widely understood to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hrw.org\/report\/2017\/03\/02\/license-kill\/philippine-police-killings-dutertes-war-drugs\">have been the police<\/a>, either in uniform in a shoot first, not worry about the consequences later policy, or <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2016\/oct\/14\/philippine-killers-unmasked-as-policemen-according-to-authorities\">\u2018off-duty\u2019 out of uniform vigilante style<\/a>. The modus operandi being <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hrw.org\/news\/2018\/06\/19\/philippines-scourge-killers-motorbikes\">assassins riding pillion on motorcycle<\/a> vanishing without much of a trace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fourth, governmental cooperation and corruption. Pull on one thread enough to build a case will expose <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/rodrigo-duterte-why-the-iccs-investigation-will-not-guarantee-a-fairer-or-safer-philippines-163089\">the top-to-bottom scale of collusion and entrenched corruption<\/a> inside the Philippines\u2019 political apparatus that I have given you just a flavour of above. Many have moved on and up like Bato and hold the nation\u2019s security offices head posts. Not only is their cooperation needed but prosecuting them would collapse the status quo and risk greater law and order breakdown. Many of those involved are bonded together over their crimes and that will require a greater force to break than the ICC wields.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fifth is political reality. Sara Duterte is most likely to be the next president in 2028. The Duterte\u2019s remain popular, the nation would not give Rodrigo up to the ICC. Of course, that is not to say that there are many that are appalled and want to see justice: rights groups have been shouting for anyone\u2019s help since 2016 and in Davao a lot longer. But sadly, these voices are a political minority. Without the support of the population at large how realistic is it that an outside international body like the ICC can penetrate the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sunstar.com.ph\/more-articles\/pnp-now-tracking-down-12-ninja-cops-transferred-in-mindanao-\">dark underbelly of the Philippines<\/a>?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-entrenched-interests-and-political-violence\">Entrenched interests and political violence<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Accountability for these crimes needs local buy in which now doesn\u2019t exist as a coherent and resilient political movement. Ideally domestic measures would do this but the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.amnesty.org\/en\/latest\/press-release\/2021\/03\/philippines-surge-killings-lawyers\/\">embattled judicial process in the Philippines<\/a> has long collapsed under its own archaic bureaucracy that has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pna.gov.ph\/articles\/1061434\">become crippled by politicisation too<\/a>. Maybe an outside force like the ICC is the only hope but even if the Marcos clan were to give up the Duterte\u2019s the domestic backlash could be severe. These are both significant political forces with entrenched interests and a history of political violence. There is much that binds the warring bedfellows beyond just a marriage of political convenience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Political dynasties in the Philippines like the Marcos and Duterte families are not to be seen as mere mob families. Their reach goes back into industry and commerce, <a href=\"https:\/\/asiatimes.com\/2017\/11\/political-dynasties-philippines\/\">deep into society and communities across the country<\/a>, the Marcos\u2019s to the North the Duterte\u2019s to the South. Many millions rely on the systems these families have built and protected and there is much for many to lose by disruption. Disruption that is very likely to quickly become violent and involve the security apparatus that is now scarily straddled across both families.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"articleLink articleLink--editorRecommanded articleLink--textInImage articleLink--textTop\" style=\"\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\r\n\t\t\t<div class=\"articleLinkSurTitle\">Recommended reading<\/div>\r\n\t\t\t<a class=\"articleLinkImageLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.justiceinfo.net\/en\/140459-can-the-icc-survive-the-u-s-sanctions-part-1.html\"><div class=\"articleLinkImageContainer \"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"540\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.justiceinfo.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/USA_Donald-Trump-raises-his-fist-front_@Charly-Triballeau-AFP-540x360.jpg\" class=\"articleLinkImage backgroundImageTag w-100 wp-post-image\" alt=\"Donald Trump becomes President of the United States again on 20 January 2025. What danger does this represent for the International Criminal Court (ICC)? Photo: Donald Trump (front) raises his fist.\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.justiceinfo.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/USA_Donald-Trump-raises-his-fist-front_@Charly-Triballeau-AFP-540x360.jpg 540w, https:\/\/www.justiceinfo.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/USA_Donald-Trump-raises-his-fist-front_@Charly-Triballeau-AFP-1000x667.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/www.justiceinfo.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/USA_Donald-Trump-raises-his-fist-front_@Charly-Triballeau-AFP-1110x740.jpg 1110w, https:\/\/www.justiceinfo.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/USA_Donald-Trump-raises-his-fist-front_@Charly-Triballeau-AFP.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/div><\/a>\r\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.justiceinfo.net\/en\/140459-can-the-icc-survive-the-u-s-sanctions-part-1.html\" class=\"articleLinkTitle articleLinkTitle--default\">\r\n\t\t\tCan the ICC survive the U.S. sanctions? (Part 1)\r\n\t\t<\/a>\r\n\t\t\r\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"content-encadre\">\r\n\t<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft wp-image-140740\" src=\"https:\/\/www.justiceinfo.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/Tom-Smith.jpg\" alt=\"Tom Smith\" width=\"200\" height=\"200\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.justiceinfo.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/Tom-Smith.jpg 500w, https:\/\/www.justiceinfo.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/Tom-Smith-150x150.jpg 150w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 200px) 100vw, 200px\" \/><strong>TOM SMITH<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.port.ac.uk\/about-us\/structure-and-governance\/our-people\/our-staff\/tom-smith\">Dr Tom Smith <\/a>is the Academic Director of the Royal Air Force College and an Associate Professor of International Relations at the University of Portsmouth, UK. He focuses on conflict and human rights in the Philippines and Southeast Asia. He has been a vocal critic of the Duterte regime and advised human rights groups in the region, working with civil society, UK government and overseas governments and NGOs.<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The International Criminal Court investigation in the Philippines is used as a political football kicked between the two dynasties that are ruling the country, the Marcos and Duterte families. And it\u2019s unlikely to play in favour of the ICC. If you\u2019ve missed the story, here is scholar Tom Smith telling you all about it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":149,"featured_media":140746,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[562,567],"tags":[2769,2987],"ji_location":[2413],"class_list":["post-140756","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-icc","category-opinion","tag-politics","tag-rodrigo-duterte-en","ji_location-philippines"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.3.1 (Yoast SEO v25.3.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>The ICC caught in clan rivalry in Philippines<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The International Criminal Court investigation in the Philippines is used as a political football kicked between the two dynasties that are ruling the country, the Marcos and Duterte families. 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If you\u2019ve missed the story, here is scholar Tom Smith telling you all about it.","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.justiceinfo.net\/en\/140756-icc-caught-clan-rivalry-philippines.html#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.justiceinfo.net\/en\/140756-icc-caught-clan-rivalry-philippines.html"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.justiceinfo.net\/en\/140756-icc-caught-clan-rivalry-philippines.html#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.justiceinfo.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/Philippines_Ferdinand-Marcos-Sara-Duterte-effigies-street_@Ted-Aljibe-AFP.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.justiceinfo.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/Philippines_Ferdinand-Marcos-Sara-Duterte-effigies-street_@Ted-Aljibe-AFP.jpg","width":1200,"height":800,"caption":"In the Philippines, the political battle rages between the two dynasties that share power, that of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr (effigy left) and his Vice-President Sara Duterte (right), daughter of former President Rodrigo Duterte, responsible for an anti-drug war that is said to have claimed 20,000 lives. 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