KAMPALA, 18 December 2015 (IRIN) - Plans for the African Union to deploy 5,000 peacekeepers to protect civilians in Burundi have been broadly welcomed, but will they help end months of deadly political unrest ignited by President Pierre Nkurunziza\u2019s quest for a third term?<\/p>\n
Friday\u2019s announcement by the AU\u2019s Peace and Security Council was historic for two reasons. It was the first time the AU had invoked a clause allowing it to intervene in a country without permission if the situation is grave enough. And it also lined up the possibility of a first operation for the fledgling East African Standby Force within a member country.<\/p>\n
But experts cautioned that we shouldn\u2019t be getting ahead of ourselves, not only because the United Nations still has to approve the move, but also because Nkurunziza may not allow it.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt is important to note that the idea of the deployment first has to be approved by the Burundian government,\u201d Stephanie Wolters, head of conflict prevention and risk analysis at the Institute for Security Studies, told IRIN.<\/p>\n
If it refuses, the matter goes back to the AU for a vote of heads of state. Two thirds must be in favour in order for the deployment to go ahead, and with several other regional leaders facing mandate issues and wary of setting a precedent for foreign intervention, this is by no means assured.<\/p>\n
\u201cAlthough the African Union charter allows for intervention in a member state in the event of an acute crisis such as genocide, war and crimes against humanity, this does not mean that African heads of state will approve the deployment of troops,\u201d Wolters said.<\/p>\n
\u201cMany other heads of state would likely frown upon the possibility that the AU could intervene in their own domestic matters, so a vote in favour of the deployment is far from guaranteed. It would be ground-breaking, as it would be the first time that the AU sends troops to a country without being invited.\u201d<\/p>\n
Could such a force actually work?<\/strong><\/p>\n Phil Clark, a Great Lakes expert at SOAS, University of London, said it was a long overdue response by the AU but doubted the plans would be effective if implemented.<\/p>\n \u201cMost likely the troops will come from the East African Standby Force, which has no direct fighting experience,\u201d Clark told IRIN. \u201cThe Standby Force has provided military advisors in Somalia and elsewhere but it has never fired a shot in anger. It seems ill-prepared to deal with the magnitude of the situation in Burundi.\u201d<\/p>\n There would also be concerns about which countries\u2019 soldiers should comprise the force. How, for example, could Rwanda join given Nkurunziza\u2019s allegations that Kigali has been supporting Burundian rebels?<\/p>\n \u201cFor these reasons, I doubt the Standby Force can help end the conflict,\u201d said Clark. \u201cIt may even inflame the situation if Burundi interprets this as military meddling by its neighbours.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n Christoph Vogel, a Great Lakes expert at the University of Zurich, agreed.<\/p>\n \u201cNeutrality is an issue,\u201d he told IRIN. \u201cTechnically, there are few fully honest brokers in the region. Literally, each neighbour country, for instance, has security concerns and hosts Burundian refugees.\u201d<\/p>\n Experts also voiced concerns about the finances and logistics of such a mission, especially as the AU does not have the resources and would have to rely on outside donors.<\/p>\n Talks not guns<\/strong><\/p>\n Ultimately, negotiation rather than military intervention is the best chance of a long-term solution to the political unrest, which has left hundreds dead since April and displaced hundreds of thousands more. But experts felt the AU move could still form part of the solution.<\/p>\n \u201cThe recent escalation of violence, demands some sort of intervention \u2013 if only to work as a buffer and contain violence against civilians,\u201d said Vogel. \u201cHowever, if not accompanied by a genuine political process \u2013 none of which we have seen so far \u2013 military intervention is always at risk of becoming peacebuilding lip-service or captured by other interests.\u201d<\/p>\n The Ugandan government, which is chairing regional mediation efforts, has said that Burundi peace negotiations will start soon.<\/p>\n \u201cWe hope this week or next week, once the logistics are in place and the parties convene in Kampala, then the talks can start,\u201d Henry Okello Oryem, Uganda's state minister for foreign affairs, told reporters on Monday.<\/p>\n Jason Stearns, from the Center on International Cooperation at New York University, welcomed the AU plans on peacekeepers as a means to an end.<\/p>\n \"The deployment of an African Union force might provide the pressure needed to get a real political process under way,\u201d he told IRIN.<\/p>\n \u201cIt's not so much having troops who will be engaged in fighting \u2013 although it hopefully would put a damper on the violence \u2013 but by sending a mission the AU deploys political and diplomatic assets that can help forge a peaceful path out of the current morass.\u201d<\/p>\n Wolters agreed.<\/p>\n \u201cIt is very important that the AU take a strong lead on the Burundi crisis and that is why this decision is significant, even if it does not automatically give the AU the green light to deploy,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n