\n A week after the Central African Republic's president surprised observers by calling a unilateral ceasefire, experts and the country's opposition warn the truce may prove unviable.\n<\/p>\n
\n President Faustin-Archange Touadera issued the ceasefire declaration, vowing to pursue dialogue, and said all but two of the main armed rebel groups had agreed to put down their weapons.\n<\/p>\n
\n But there is as yet no start date for a \"republican dialogue\" Touadera promised on his re-election and reiterated as he ordered the halt to hostilities.\n<\/p>\n
\n Meanwhile, his spokesman Albert Yaloke Mokpeme told AFP that \"our objective is to get rid of the rebellion -- one does not engage in a dialogue with those who take up arms.\"\n<\/p>\n
\n Reconciliation with armed groups is a peace prerequisite, said Roland Marchal, a regional expert at France's Center for International Studies (Ceri).\n<\/p>\n
\n \"You make peace with your enemies, not your friends,\" he added.\n<\/p>\n
\n One of the world's poorest nations, the CAR has repeatedly been wracked by conflict since obtaining independence from France in 1960.\n<\/p>\n
\n Civil war broke out in 2013 after a coup toppled president Francois Bozize, who had seized power a decade earlier.\n<\/p>\n
\n While that conflict has dropped in intensity in the past three years, unrest remains rife.\n<\/p>\n
\n Since 2007, there have been 13 peace accords and a welter of ceasefires but none has held in the long term.\n<\/p>\n
\n - Excluded from dialogue -\n<\/p>\n
\n Last December, the Coalition of Patriots for Change (CPC), an alliance of armed groups which together occupied roughly two-thirds of the country, launched a major offensive aimed at preventing Touadera's re-election.\n<\/p>\n
\n Having won a second term, he promptly called in the help of a Russian paramilitary group and Rwandan elite troops to aid a floundering army as the rebels closed in on the capital Bangui.\n<\/p>\n
\n The armed forces were then able to wrest back control of several rebel-held towns.\n<\/p>\n
\n Even after the ceasefire, two rebel groups have broken withe the CPC's openness to dialogue.\n<\/p>\n
\n One, the Union for Peace (UPC), the country's most powerful armed group, quit the CPC alliance last April.\n<\/p>\n
\n Opposition lawmaker and former prime minister Martin Ziguele says the government must bring the rebels inside the peace tent.\n<\/p>\n
\n \"If armed groups lay down their arms it is a contradiction to keep them outside political dialogue,\" Ziguele told AFP.\n<\/p>\n
\n \"We shall see what the government proposes but to refuse to allow them in risks throwing everything up in the air,\" he warned.\n<\/p>\n
\n - 'Playing for time' -\n<\/p>\n
\n Thierry Vircoulon of the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri) suggested the truce offer could be designed to polish Bangui's image with international partners, a month after a Luanda summit of neighbouring states and the UN underlined the need for a ceasefire.\n<\/p>\n
\n \"The true condition to make a ceasefire stick is that the president engages in inclusive dialogue,\" CPC spokesman Serge Bozanga told AFP.\n<\/p>\n
\n \"Touadera is just playing for time so he can reinforce himself militarily.\"\n<\/p>\n
\n Much will likely depend on the difference Russian mercenaries can make as they fight alongside the government's poorly-equipped and -trained army.\n<\/p>\n
\n France and the UN -- which has a 12,000-strong mission in the country -- have accused them of \"possible war crimes\" and of making money notably through taking over gold and diamond mining areas.\n<\/p>\n
\n The rebels remain capable of harassing the government forces even after beating a retreat and being forced to change tactics by the losses of their fiefdoms.\n<\/p>\n
\n From holding sway over much of the country a year ago, they have switched to guerrilla tactics and the use of improvised explosive devices.\n<\/p>\n
\n \"The rebels disperse easily and have time to reorganise,\" says Ceri expert Marchal.\n<\/p>\n
\n Lewis Mudge of Human Rights Watch predicts they will continue to operate across several territories and \"kill civilians.\"\n<\/p>\n
\n Vircoulon said that November heralds the dry season -- traditionally the time for military action.\n<\/p>\n
\n Even if the rebels are not presently an existential threat to Touadera, \"they can wear the government down financially,\" notes Marchal.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
A week after the Central African Republic's president surprised observers by calling a unilateral ceasefire, experts and the country's opposition warn the truce may prove unviable. President Faustin-Archange Touadera issued the ceasefire declaration, vowing to pursue dialogue, and said all but two of the main armed rebel groups had agreed to put down their weapons. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":60,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[553],"tags":[],"ji_location":[],"class_list":["post-83561","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-feed"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n