\n Libya is to hold its first ever presidential elections late next week, but the lack of a final list of candidates and bitter political divisions have cast doubt on whether they will take place.\n<\/p>\n
\n Polling, set for December 24, was intended to mark a transition towards peace, but many now fear it could instead reignite civil war.\n<\/p>\n
\n The \"elections may do more harm than good in Libya given the deep societal and political fault lines,\" said Jamal Benomar, a former United Nations under-secretary-general.\n<\/p>\n
\n \"The necessary conditions for free and fair elections are not available, and Libyans are too divided to accept or agree on the results.\"\n<\/p>\n
\n The election, part of a United Nations-led peace process, comes after a year of relative calm following a landmark October 2020 ceasefire between eastern and western camps.\n<\/p>\n
\n A transitional administration took office in March to lead the oil-rich North African country into the polls.\n<\/p>\n
\n But despite high hopes for peace, the UN has struggled to overcome deep, complex divisions left by a decade of fighting and foreign intervention since the 2011 NATO-backed uprising that toppled and killed Moamer Kadhafi.\n<\/p>\n
\n Benomar, who chairs the International Centre for Dialogue Initiatives think tank, warned that fragmented state institutions and a lack of \"unified or legitimate\" security forces were destabilising the country.\n<\/p>\n
\n As an array of armed groups hold sway on the ground, few believe that voters will be able to freely cast their ballots.\n<\/p>\n
\n - Divisive candidates -\n<\/p>\n
\n About 2.5 million voter registration cards have been collected, but aside from posters urging other Libyans to do likewise, there are few signs in the seaside capital Tripoli that a ballot is approaching.\n<\/p>\n
\n With the election authority yet to publish a final list of candidates, campaigning has not officially begun, although some hopefuls are promoting themselves on social media.\n<\/p>\n
\n The elections follow months of bitter disputes over their legal basis and who may stand, with several divisive figures in the running.\n<\/p>\n
\n Among the most controversial is Khalifa Haftar, a military chief who controls much of eastern and southern Libya.\n<\/p>\n
\n He is despised in the country's west following his year-long, ultimately failed assault on Tripoli in 2019-2020.\n<\/p>\n
\n His candidacy was made possible by a controversial electoral law signed off by his ally, parliamentary speaker Aguila Saleh, in a process rivals say bypassed due process.\n<\/p>\n
\n But for some, his rival Seif al-Islam Kadhafi's candidacy is equally problematic.\n<\/p>\n
\n The son of the toppled dictator who ruled Libya with an iron fist for four decades, Seif al-Islam is accused by many -- including International Criminal Court prosecutors -- of war crimes.\n<\/p>\n
\n Anas El Gomati, director of Libyan think tank the Sadeq Institute, said that \"elections under these legal and political conditions will almost certainly destabilise Libya\".\n<\/p>\n
\n He told AFP: \"An election victory by Seif or Haftar would bring war from those who stood against Kadhafi in 2011 or Haftar's assault on Tripoli in 2019.\"\n<\/p>\n
\n Even interim Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibah, a tycoon who heads the Tripoli-based transitional administration, faces claims his candidacy is illegitimate.\n<\/p>\n
\n After months of legal battles, \"whoever wins, there is a risk that the losers will undermine the winners and say the election wasn't constitutionally valid,\" said Peter Millett, a former UK ambassador to Libya.\n<\/p>\n
\n - 'Train crash' -\n<\/p>\n
\n As if these complexities were not enough, the UN's Libya envoy Jan Kubis quit his post just a month before the poll.\n<\/p>\n
\n A diplomat in New York, who asked not to be named, said Kubis's insistence on holding the polls on December 24 had caused a \"breakdown\" in his relationship with Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, who doubted conditions were ripe.\n<\/p>\n
\n Kubis had even recognised the contentious September election law. That was \"one of the big criticisms of his tenure\", said Amanda Kadlec, a former member of the UN Panel of Experts on Libya.\n<\/p>\n
\n To avoid a vacuum, Guterres appointed US diplomat Stephanie Williams, a former acting director of the UN's Libya mission, as \"special adviser\".\n<\/p>\n
\n Parliamentary speaker Saleh had also changed the electoral timetable to delay legislative polls, keeping himself in charge of the eastern-based parliament even if his ally Haftar were to lose the presidential vote, according to Gomati.\n<\/p>\n
\n Yet despite the danger of holding the polls, experts warn that postponing them also carries risks.\n<\/p>\n
\n If Dbeibah stayed in position without a ballot, his eastern rivals could again create their own government to compete with his, Kadlec said.\n<\/p>\n
\n Millett sees a risk \"that Libya is heading for a train crash on December 25 whether elections happen on schedule or not.\"<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Libya is to hold its first ever presidential elections late next week, but the lack of a final list of candidates and bitter political divisions have cast doubt on whether they will take place. Polling, set for December 24, was intended to mark a transition towards peace, but many now fear it could instead reignite […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":60,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[553],"tags":[],"ji_location":[],"class_list":["post-85505","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-feed"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n