Germany-Turkey: Diplomatic storm or passing squall?

2 min 24Approximate reading time

Turkey reacted with predictable fury to the passing of a resolution by the German parliament recognising as genocide the massacres of Armenians under the Ottoman Empire but it remains to be seen if the move will have wider repercussions.

Recognition of the killings from 1915 as genocide has been a red line for Turkey both under its previous secular rulers and also the Islamic-rooted ruling party of Recep Tayyip Erdogan that rose to power in 2002.

Turkish officials vied with each other to give the most indignant response, with the justice minister saying the country which "burned the Jews in the ovens" had no right to make accusations against Turkey.

Turkey's usually deeply polarised press was for once united in a shared wave of anger with one daily even portraying Chancellor Angela Merkel in a Nazi uniform with a Hitler moustache and calling Germans "Hitler's grandsons".

-How far will Turkey's reaction go?

Erdogan and the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in 2009 led an unprecedented process of rapprochement with Armenia to normalise ties which is now in tatters.

Yerevan refused to give concessions while the AKP has pursued a more nationalist line, helping it at the ballot box at the expense of the strife-torn Nationalist Movement Party (MHP).

Rather than bring the sides closer together, the 100th anniversary of the tragedy in 2015 only served to increase the mutual acrimony.

"President Erdogan will not be timid in his usual rhetorical flourish and displays of diplomatic disdain for the (German) vote," said Richard Giragosian, director of the Regional Studies Center (RSC) think-tank in Yerevan, adding other officials would also try to "out-do each other in demonstrations of allegiance".

Turkey made the conventional diplomatic riposte of withdrawing its ambassador for consultations. But Prime Minister Binali Yildirim struck a more conciliatory tone Friday saying that while damaged, relations would not suddenly nosedive.

-Will there be concrete consequences?

Germany is a key economic partner of Turkey, with total trade volumes amounting to $38 billion in 2013 and in troubled economic times it's unlikely Ankara would want to disturb these waters.

Furthermore, it is the key partner of Turkey in the EU, in a relationship that goes back to the alliance between the late Ottoman Empire and Imperial Germany that saw them fight on the same side in World War I.

For all the angry rhetoric, there has so far been no concrete warning from a top Turkish official of material retaliation against Germany.

And crucially, there has been no talk of linking the dispute over the genocide to the already troubled deal to reduce the flow of migrants to Europe that Merkel championed.

"There will be shows of anger but probably no serious rupture in relations between Turkey and Germany," said Jean Marcou, Director of International Relations at the Grenoble Institute of Political Studies.

-Can there be a breakthrough in the future?

The Bundestag's move came after similar recognition from foreign parliaments, including France, and the issue is yet another thorn in the side of Turkey's stalled EU bid.

But with public opinion in Turkey firmly behind the Turkish government on the issue, it seems inconceivable that Ankara could step back from its red line on genocide recognition.

"Without denying the existence of the massacres, Turkey considers them as one of the unfortunate consequences of a state of war," said Marcou.

Justice Minister Bekir Bozdag stated Friday bluntly that "there is nothing in our nation's past" that can compare to Germany's crimes against the Jews.

Yet the vote in the German parliament was as much about finding a lever to pressure Turkey at a time of troubled relations as it was about the historical guilt for the Armenian genocide.

"This may only tend to limit the negative impact on the outlook for a later re-engagement by Turkey and Armenia in recommitting to the 'normalisation' process, said Giragosian.