The International Crisis Group (ICG) on Tuesday called for a postponement of next month's presidential elections in Ivory Coast and for ballot preparations to be overhauled, and suggested political exiles be allowed to return.
Tensions are running high ahead of the October 31 vote. President Alassane Ouattara is set to defy protestors who accuse him of abusing a constitutional limit of two terms in office, and his predecessor Laurent Gbagbo and former prime minister Guillaume Soro have been barred from taking part.
Violent protests against Ouattara's candidacy left around 15 dead last month, reviving memories of a post-election conflict nearly a decade ago that claimed more than 3,000 lives.
Ouattara, 78, and his supporters argue that a 2016 constitutional tweak reset the clock on his time in office.
"A short delay would provide an opportunity to emerge from the present confrontation through dialogue," the ICG said in a statement, adding that "peaceful and transparent" polls were not possible in the current scenario.
"The chances of this election spawning a serious crisis are high," the respected independent think tank said.
Former strongman Gbagbo, 75, who was president from 2000 to 2010, and former rebel leader Guillaume Soro, 47, both played key roles in the crisis that engulfed the country after disputed elections in 2010.
Their candidacies have been ruled out by the country's top court on the grounds that they have criminal records.
Gbagbo, who is in Brussels pending the final outcoming of proceedings against him by the International Criminal Court (ICC), was handed a 20-year jail term in absentia by an Ivorian court last November over the looting of the Central Bank of West African States during the post-election crisis.
Soro, who has fallen out with Ouattara and lives today in France, was handed a 20-year sentence in April, also in absentia, for alleged embezzlement of public funds.
The ICG said the issues that needed to be resolved were "the composition of the Independent Electoral Commission, a revision of the voters' rolls, the modalities for the return of political exiles and the fate of some of their supporters who are still imprisoned."
It also asked the Ivorian government to allow Gbagbo and Soro to return, "a gesture that could lighten the present (political) climate."
"If nothing changes... the winner will almost inevitably face a lack of legitimacy... (and) inherit a country that is extremely difficult to govern," it
The ICG also called for a "transfer of power to a new generation". The other main contestant in the election is former president Henri Konan Bedie, 86, from the historically dominant PDCI party.